Abstract
The primary objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on
the current and future spatial distribution of areas suitable for the growth of
Senegalia senegal, a forest species of significant agro-ecological and socio-eco
nomic importance. To achieve this objective, the MaxEnt (Maximum En
tropy) model was utilized, incorporating species presence points alongside
bioclimatic variables. To project future distributions, three climatic models
CCCMA, HadCM3, and CSIRO were employed under the A2 scenario to pre
dict the species’ distribution by the year 2050. Currently, habitats highly favor
able for the conservation of the species are situated in the Sahelo-Sudanian and
Sudanian zones, accounting for 6.81% of the national territory. All models
forecast a substantial increase in habitats highly favorable for the future con
servation of S. senegal, with a total expected growth of 448.9%. Conversely,
moderately favorable and unfavorable habitats are predicted to decrease by
106.26% and 78.59%, respectively. These findings provide crucial data for the
long-term conservation strategy of this species, which holds significant ecolog
ical and agronomic potential for the Sahelian region.